Vladimir Guerrero Jr. plays for the Toronto Blue Jays. That statement might not be true for much longer.
The slugging first baseman did not reach an extension agreement by his self-imposed deadline of the beginning of Spring Training. Since he does not plan to negotiate during the season, he will become one of the most highly-sought free agents following the 2025 season.
Guerrero, who was born in Canada when his Hall-of-Fame father played for the Montreal Expos, has been the Blue Jays' biggest star pretty much since he debuted as a 20-year-old in 2019. In six seasons, he has hit .288/.363/.500 with a 137 OPS+, indicating his offense has been 37% better than the league average. He has four All-Star appearances, two Silver Sluggers, a Gold Glove, and was the MVP runner-up in 2021 when he led MLB with 48 home runs.
He will turn 26 next month, which means he will reach free agency on the cusp of his age-27 season. It's uncommon for a star player to become a free agent so young, which means his price tag will be substantial. Juan Soto is the most recent example. At age 26, he signed a 15-year, $765 million contract with the New York Mets this offseason. His career 160 OPS+ shows that he is a significantly more productive hitter than Guerrero and he was a year younger at free agency than Guerrero will be, so the first baseman won't approach that astronomical number.
More realistic benchmarks would be the next-highest-paid position players, who are Alex Bregman and Aaron Judge (excluding two-way player Shohei Ohtani). They both earn $40 million per year, and Guerrero should expect to surpass that average annual value. On a 12-year deal or longer, that would put his total contract value north of $480 million.
All of this presumes he will put together a typically excellent season. In 2024, he batted .323/.396/.544 with 30 home runs and a 166 OPS+. The year before, he hit .264/.345/.444 with a 116 OPS+, which is still quite good, but not superstar level. His swing isn't optimized for fly balls, and his 48.6% groundball rate is higher than ideal, but he hits the ball so hard that when he does elevate the ball in the air, it often leaves the yard. Over his career, 18.4% of his fly balls have traveled over the fence, which is well above the league average.
A lot of first basemen changed teams this offseason, but few of the clubs who needed one made a multiyear commitment. The Blue Jays should remain in the bidding, but they'll have competition. The New York Yankees have a Soto-sized hole in their lineup, and newly-acquired first baseman Paul Goldschmidt is on a one-year deal. The Mets could be in the mix if Pete Alonso opts out of the second year of his contract following the 2025 season. The Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres both have first basemen on the verge of free agency -- Josh Naylor and Luis Arraez. The Chicago Cubs and Texas Rangers could make sense as landing spots too, though their defensive alignments may require some reconfiguring.
Toronto and Guerrero can never say never to an extension. If the Blue Jays offered him $500 million during the season, he'll give it strong consideration, regardless of his negotiating timeline. However, the fact that he has made it to Spring Training without a deal in hand will have the rest of the league salivating for his free agency this fall.