Red Sox pitching coach Andrew Bailey has been watching the baseball postseason closely. And like you, he's noticed one thing: teams have never been more reliant on their bullpens than they have this fall.
Before the World Series gets underway Friday night, relievers have carried the day -- and the workload. They've pitched more (347.1 innings for relievers, compared to 323 for starters) and more effectively. It used to be that teams needed a strong rotation to advance, but the New York Mets lead all teams with the most number of starter's innings this month -- and they'll be watching the World Series from home.
Presumably, the Dodgers would have compiled far more innings from their rotation had they had the use of Tyler Glasnow, Gavin Stone, Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May, River Ryan and Clayton Kershaw, all of whom are currently unavailable to them. That the Dodgers were able to overcome all of those losses is a reflection of how good their bullpen has been and how strong their lineup up is.
But other teams -- including the Detroit Tigers -- went into October knowing they'd be relying far more on their relievers than their rotation.
It's been a culmination of an evolution of thought when it comes to bullpens usage that's been going on for the last half-dozen or so years, said Bailey.
"Obviously, there's a little bit more of a sense of urgency (in the postseason) to win today," noted Bailey. "You don't wait and let things play out in a big situation. There's a lot of different variables in play. And also, I think you've seen some teams in the regular season, when they have a starter or two go down, create a strategy that's based on matchups with openers.
"In a vacuum, if you have to win one game, you're going to maximize moments in the game. When it comes down to it (in the postseason), it's about winning the moment. You don't know where the highest leverage point is going to come or know which moment is going to win the game. So trying to win every single moment becomes the priority. In a perfect world, you'd let the starter go with a big lead until he gets to 100 or so pitches. But that's not reality, so there's a little bit more urgency. The deltas between platoon advantages is so crucial in those must-win games."
In some cases this month, some bullpens have operated on fumes. Cleveland closer Emmanuel Clase allowed more runs in one series that he did all season long, a reminder that teams can't overwork their bullpens in the regular season and expect them to be at full capacity when the games mean the most in October.
"You aren't necessarily going to be planning in May or June for October," noted Bailey. "But during the season, there are certain restrictions that teams will operate under -- you don't see a lot of three (games) in a row. At the same time, I think a certain amount of undulation of performance is going to happen later in the season."
Closer to home, the Red Sox will need to upgrade their bullpen for 2025. Closer Kenley Jansen is almost certainly headed elsewhere and veteran set-up man Chris Martin is also a free agent and not guaranteed to return. The Sox have a closer candidate in-house in Liam Hendriks, but otherwise, will need to bolster their back end with either free agent signings or trades.
In each of the past two years, manager Alex Cora has spoken about the need to obtain hard-throwing arms capable of generating more swing and miss. Rule 5 star Justin Slaten is one candidate and rookie Luis Guerrero whose fastball registered in the high 90s, is another. More will be needed.
"it's a large focus for us to develop 'stuff,' " said Bailey. "We always want our players to continue to push. No matter the pitch type, we know that velocity performs. We know that a 97 mph fastball is better than a 96 mph fastball."
In their attempt to get relievers to, in Bailey's words, "build a better engine during the offseason," the Red Sox sent relievers home for the winter with throwing programs designed to improve velocity and overall quality of stuff.
"We know the value of of swing and miss," he said. "It's huge for run prevention, not only during the course of a game, but each at-bat. The best outcome for a pitcher is a swing and miss because the 'ball in play' probability is zero. So developing swing and miss stuff, developing velocity is going to be our focus, not only for this offseason but the focus of the organization going forward."
Slaten could conceivably be an eighth-inning weapon, assuming Hendriks is tasked with the closer's role. Guerrero, meanwhile, though he has exactly nine games of big league experience, could also be a late-inning contributor.
But the Sox will likely need to add more experienced bullpen options through free agency or via a trade. Those veterans could help the team contend in 2025 and beyond.
But long-term, the Red Sox have to construct their own pitching pipeline. Watching a team like Cleveland get to the ALCS thanks to a handful of hard-throwing relievers - almost all of them homegrown -- was a reminder that the ultimate goal is to develop in-house.
"If we can continue to push the big league level with talents like Guerrero, that's the goal," said Bailey. "To bring up high velocity guys and quality stuff, and have them contribute at the major league level."
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The social media hysteria over the Red Sox' hiring of Taylor Smith as the team's new analytics director has died down some in recent days, but it was completely over-the-top and uninformed.
Initially, the responses centered around the predictable four-letter word -- Nerd! -- which is both predictable and sad. It's the kind of thing you'd expect to hear around 2005, toward the beginning of the analytics revolution, which is now over. Spoiler alert: the "nerds" won, and in a rout, too.
Some thoughts:
1) The use of analytics is not indicative of the size of a team's payroll.
Because "sabermetrics" first got some traction in association with the Oakland A's in the early 2000s, there's the lingering suspicion that only small-budget teams rely on analytics in 2024. In fact, nothing could be further from the truth.
Every organization, all 30 of them, employ sizable analytics staffs and use data to project performance, identify successes and failures and aid in roster-building. And while it's true that the budget-conscious Tampa Bay Rays have the most number of data-analysts, second and third on the list are the big-market, budget-busting, free-spending Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees. Those two teams also happen to have just won pennants in their respective leagues.
The Yankees have been criticized by some fans for their over-use of analytics in recent seasons. And the same charge has been leveled against the Dodgers.
But by now, heavy integration of analytics in player personnel decisions are now standard operating procedure across the industry. This isn't about "new school" vs. "traditionalists" anymore; using that measurement, there are no more traditionalists. Every single organization is using the numbers. The only difference is whether they're using them a lot, or a real lot.
Again: if one team spending $70 million and two others spending in excess of $325 million are all using the same methodology, it's not exactly a niche approach.
2) Expanding the analytics department does not mean the Red Sox want to be more like the Rays.
What it does mean is this: the Red Sox, like other teams, want to make the most informed decisions possible when it comes to evaluating players.
That means incorporating the views of scouts, and blending them with data from analytics. The more input available, the less likely it is you make a poor call on a player's worth or potential ceiling.
The Rays rely on analytics to make them more efficient in their approach, since, financially, they can't afford to make mistakes on players the way big-market teams can. But that doesn't mean that there isn't great value to having access to more data when it comes to decision-making.
If you're not availing yourself of all possible options when it comes to evaluating, then you're doing a disservice to your organization, and by extension, your fans. For a team with the resources of the Red Sox, there's no excuse not to have a top-notch analytics department, overseen by someone who's built a strong reputation -- as Smith seemingly has.
3) Hiring someone to head your analytics department doesn't signal that you intend to cut corners when it comes to payroll.
Across the organization, from team president Sam Kennedy to chief baseball officer Craig Breslow to manager Alex Cora, the Red Sox have given every indication that the wraps will come off the team checkbook this offseason. Having arrived at .500 and stockpiled with more top prospects than there are slots for them on the major league roster, it's time for the Red Sox to spend again. Whether that reaches the same levels as 2018-2019 remains to be seen, but a significant uptick is expected.
And, if that's not the case, the team should be excoriated, as they were last winter when chairman Tom Werner's "full throttle" vow proved to be just talk.
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Forgot market size and TV ratings: this World Series will not be short on stars.
In addition to boasting of the two biggest in the game -- Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, who will soon be named MVPs of their respective leagues -- there's plenty more star power featured on both sides.
The Dodgers alone will have three players in uniform who are likely going to end up in Cooperstown: Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. A fourth, Kershaw, is injured and won't be on the active roster.
As for the Yankees, Judge is on the same Hall of Fame track, and you could probably add both Juan Soto and Gerrit Cole as likely inductees. That may seem absurd for someone like Soto, who just turned 26. But barring a career-threatening injury and what he's already accomplished, it's almost impossible to imagine not on a Hall of Fame-bound track. Giancarlo Stanton, the ALCS MVP, will likely finish his career with 500 or more career homers and a stellar postseason resumé.
If MLB can't achieve near-record setting TV numbers for this World Series, all hope may be lost. This has all the makings -- two legacy franchises, the top two TV markets, one team from the East Coast and one from the West Coast, and, as noted, plenty of stars.
And the four days leading up to the Series can only serve to further build interest.
Then again, it's wise to remember that MLB's top-rated World Series of all-time is a tie between the 1978 Fall Classic (Dodger-Yankees) and one two years later between the Phillies and Kansas City Royals. Sometimes, market size isn't everything.