The Bike and Tread maker has focused on curbing costs and prioritizing profitability over growth after refinancing its debt earlier this year.
Greenlight Capital's David Einhorn thinks Peloton could trade as high as $31.50 a share if the company slashes costs, which could double its current adjusted EBITDA projections, CNBC has learned.
That's about five times the current price of its shares, which were trading around $6.20 midday on Friday.
In a pitch deck Einhorn presented at the Robin Hood Investors Conference on Wednesday, Einhorn pedaled on a Peloton bike as he explained the company's many missteps over the years and the wide runway it has to turn its business around, according to a copy of the presentation obtained by CNBC.
If it can generate $450 million in EBITDA, about double its current projections, Peloton could trade between $7.50 and $31.50 a share, based on a benchmark study of comparable companies, said Einhorn.
Notably, Greenlight's analysis doesn't assume "any growth in subscription revenues from new customers or price increases or other new initiatives, such as activation fees from the growing used bike market and international expansion," Einhorn said.
"Facing bankruptcy can force change," he said during the pitch. "Peloton has started to right-size and cash burn has stopped. It refinanced its debt to push out maturities. And with a loyal customer base that pays $44 per month, it's a valuable subscription business."
Einhorn structured the presentation as if he was an instructor giving a workout class, occasionally shouting out investors in the room. The first page of the deck was titled "15 minute 'Stock Pitch Ride'" and shows an image of Einhorn on a Peloton bike.
"Let's start with some shoutouts," Einhorn said at the beginning of the pitch, calling out a number of investors and sponsors, similar to the way a Peloton instructor would call out class attendees.
Each page of the deck shows a leaderboard of other apparent riders -- including investor Bill Ackman and Robin Hood CEO Richard Buery -- along with Einhorn's speed, cadence and resistance, mimicking what users see while taking a Peloton bike class.
Greenlight and Peloton declined comment to CNBC.
Greenlight, which had a $6.8 million stake in the company as of June 30, conducted a benchmark study analyzing Peloton's cost structure. The firm compared Peloton to three sets of peer companies: fitness businesses like Planet Fitness, consumer subscription companies like Chewy, and consumer online subscription businesses like Spotify and Netflix.
The study found that even though Peloton has already cut costs to curb its cash burn, it's seeing "basically zero adjusted EBITDA versus the peer median of $406 million," Einhorn stated in the pitch.
"For peers, over a third of gross profit flows through to EBITDA. Part of the problem is that Peloton spends too much on research and development," said Einhorn. "Just as one example, Peloton spends about twice the R&D that Adidas spends ... in dollar terms. And Adidas has 8 times more sales than Peloton and an order of magnitude more product lines."
Peloton's stock-based compensation expense of $305 million in fiscal 2024 is also double the peer median and comparable to far larger companies like Spotify and Netflix - which are 30 times and 140 times larger, respectively, Einhorn said.
At the heart of the thesis is Peloton's high-margin subscription business, which generated $1.71 billion in revenue in fiscal 2024 with a gross margin of about 68%. If Peloton can make deep cost cuts, the company could generate far more free cash flow and EBITDA without needing to sell more bikes and treadmills, and without needing to grow its subscriber base.
Earlier this year, Peloton announced plans to lay off 15% of its staff, close retail showrooms, and adjust its international sales plans, among other cost savings initiatives. It expects those cuts could reduce annual run rate expenses by more than $200 million by the end of fiscal 2025.
In August, Peloton said it expects it can post adjusted EBITDA of between $200 million and $250 million in fiscal 2025. But Einhorn said if the company gets its cost structure more in line with the benchmark, "there should be $400 - $500 million of EBITDA from the current subscription revenue base."
Companies that generate that range of EBITDA tend to trade at nine to 32 times that amount, implying a potential Peloton share price of between $7.50 on the low end and $31.50 on the high end, if it reaches $450 million in EBITDA, he said.
To get there, Einhorn said the company needs new management. In August, Peloton's interim co-CEO Karen Boone said she believes the new top executive will be in place by the time the company next reports earnings, which are now scheduled for Thursday.
"The nice part of our thesis is that we don't have to convince Peloton this is the right approach," said Einhorn. "Peloton's interim co-CEOs are telling the same story of a recurring, high-margin subscription revenue stream business. They have also implemented an initial cost-cutting plan, which still leaves plenty of room for the new CEO."
He said the company continues to garner top reviews among consumers and fitness publications and has a rabidly loyal customer base. He added that even though fitness buffs are returning to the gym, home workouts are here to stay.
"Working out in the comfort of your own home is not a fad," said Einhorn. "And a trend towards healthier lifestyles should all drive underlying subscriber growth over time."