The Professional Pickleball Tour (PPA) introduced a tennis-style "Tour Finals" concept in 2023, where the top eight players/teams in each pro pickleball discipline are invited to a top-level competition spectacle at the end of the long touring season. The 2023 event itself was a great display of the game's top players competing in round robin competition and guaranteeing semi-finals quality matches throughout the weekend. Both #1 pros Anna Leigh Waters and Ben Johns took home triple crowns at last year's Tour Finals event, but their pathways to their titles were anything but straight-forward.
The 2024 CIBC Tour Finals in San Clemente has been on every player's calendar from the beginning of the year, with the PPA's leaderboard showing both rolling 365-day rankings and the "Race" rankings that represent year-to-date points that will determine who gets invited to California in December.
There's just two PPA pro events left for players to earn their spots, this coming weekend's UPA Worlds (a grand-slam event worth 2000 points to the winners), and then the Veolia Milwaukee Open in two weeks' time (a 1000-level "open" tournament). In this article we're going to run through the rankings as they stand ahead of Dallas to talk about who's in, who's out, and who might make a last-minute run to qualify.
Quick reminder of Tour Finals qualification: the top eight singles players qualify, the top 16 Men/Women gender doubles players qualify, and the top eight men and women ranked in Mixed qualify. The goal is to have eight players or teams competing in the finals in December.
Men's Singles:
Discussion: Hunter Johnson is holding off #9 Alshon by just 25 points (which, for context, is what players earn for making the round of 64 in a PPA 1000 event, which all of these players get byes through anyway), but Alshon is not entered into singles in Dallas. He played the MLP playoffs last weekend, but has been working through injuries for a few weeks now. Sock sits 10th but has struggled in singles for most of the season after some quick success early, and faces a very tough round of 32 in Dallas (Cason Campbell) who may very well defeat him. Haworth has a PPA gold medal this season, in an event in June where he beat both #1 Staksrud and #2 Johns in succession, and would be a real dark-horse favorite to advance ... but he's not playing singles in Dallas. So, that essentially ends his chances at qualifying.
Prediction: The current top eight advances, and the players on the outside looking in remain that way.
Women's Singles:
Discussion: There's a pretty wide separation from the top 4 singles players to even the women ranked 5th-8th in points right now, but perhaps not necessarily by recent accomplishments. #9 Fahey now has two gold medals and a slew of podiums just since August and is rising fast. #8 Brascia won gold in April, but hasn't made a podium since. #10 Castillo has too much ground to catch up to be a factor here. The Dallas draw does not do Brascia any favors: she plays into Castillo in the 16s and projects to #1 Waters in the quarters, likely capping the number of points she can earn. Meanwhile, Fahey has a tough draw (Todd in 16s, Jansen in quarters, Buckner in Semis) but they're all players she's beaten lately and has a relatively straight-forward path to the finals.
Prediction: Fahey catches Brascia for the 8th spot and qualifies for the Tour Finals.
Men's Gender Doubles
Discussion: Wilson holds on to the #16 spot, but will either be passed or (we presume) won't play due to his near season-long injury. So technically Garnett is clinging to the 16th spot as we speak. Garnett has been playing recently with Loong (who sits 19th), so their fortunes are tied together. In Dallas they project to play Newman/Patriquin in the 16s but then #2 Johnson/Frazier in the quarters, so they likely are capped at 400 points earned. Ignatowich is playing with Alshon (an ironic pairing of two players who had social media beef previously) and have a decent chance to get to the quarters against the top seeds, which means Ignatowich will keep pace ahead of Loong. Meanwhile, Newman has a sizeable lead already built up irrespective of his results in the last two events and seems impossible to catch.
Discussion: A number of the locks on the women's doubles side are long-term partnerships that have played together most of the year, which makes most of the locks self-explanatory. Where it gets interesting is at the fringes of qualification. Right now the Kawamoto sisters sit 16th and 17th ... but they're not in Dallas (believed due to work conflicts). Nor is Mari Humberg, who sits 19th and would have had a very outside shot at moving up with the right partner. That will open up a huge hole for one player in particular: Allyce Jones. She sits 18th right now and she's teamed with Hurricane Tyra Black as the 7th seeds in Dallas. They stand a pretty reasonable chance at the quarters, which would give Jones enough points to catapult her into 16th spot. Irvine at #20 is just too far back to have a realistic shot.
Prediction: Jones gets the 16th spot and qualifies at the expense of the Kawamoto sisters.
Mixed Doubles - Men
Discussion: Wilson still remains ranked highly due to great early season wins, but we're assuming he'll miss the Tour finals. That gives the last spot to Patriquin by the hair of his teeth over Newman, who he currently leads by just 100 points. Tardio and Daescu are a few hundred points back of Newman, but face an uphill battle. Tardio is playing this weekend with Schneemann and may struggle to get out of the 32s. Daescu is playing with Dizon but likely run into Staksrud/Rohrabacher in the 16s. Patriquin is playing with Irvine and will be an underdog in the round of 16. Only Newman is a top eight seed favored for a deep run, playing with Parenteau as the #7 seed, and should cruise into the quarters. McGuffin holds onto the 7th spot, and may get ousted early at the hands of Newman in Dallas, which could put his spot in jeopardy based on the results in Milwaukee.
Prediction: Newman will out-point Patriquin the rest of the way and claim the #8 spot. Meanwhile, Patriquin goes one round deeper than McGuffin in Milwaukee and leaves Tyson on the outside looking in.
Mixed Doubles - Women
Discussion: There's a massive gulf between the top 5 mixed ladies and the rest of the field. That keeps playing out on tour week in and week out, as we see the same players routinely making the back ends of these draws. The one name on the outside looking in right now to watch for is Rohrabacher, who has set up a regular partnership with Staksrud and are becoming a mixed force. Wright is barely ahead of Irvine right now, but has a higher-ranked partner in Dallas (Alshon) and projects to face Irvine in the round of 16; the winner of that match may very well secure the last spot.
Prediction: Rohrabacher makes deep runs in both Dallas and Milwaukee to skip past both Wright and Irvine to capture a tour spot safely. Wright holds on and edges Irvine for the last spot in San Clemente.
There's a lot at stake this coming weekend in Dallas, and next weekend in Milwaukee. We will circle back once the Tour Finals field is set with some predictions for the group stages and the finals themselves.