The season hasn't gone according to plan for UNC basketball, which is off to its worst start since the 2019-20 season.
But the Tar Heels (7-5, 1-0 ACC) had one of the toughest nonconference schedules in the nation, which included five games against ranked opponents. Coming off a comeback victory against No. 18 UCLA, UNC is hopeful the battle-tested stretch will lead to better results for the rest of the season.
Fourth-year coach Hubert Davis has seen consistent fight from his club, which is led by fifth-year guard RJ Davis, but the Heels have to win more big games to feel comfortable about their NCAA Tournament chances on Selection Sunday.
Here's a breakdown of UNC's offense and defense as 2024 comes to a close, along with a look ahead at the bulk of the Tar Heels' ACC schedule and their current NCAA Tournament resume.
There's seemingly no solution for the Tar Heels' frontcourt problems, but UNC's four-guard lineup has consistently proven to be the best path to victory. With a big-man-by-committee approach, UNC's top five players include four guards -- RJ Davis, Seth Trimble, Elliot Cadeau and Ian Jackson -- and wing Drake Powell. UNC is averaging 85.6 points per game, with 56.5 points coming from its top four guards.
FROM JV TO VARSITY: How Russell Hawkins went from UNC basketball JV to Hubert Davis' Tar Heels
The Tar Heels haven't had issues putting up points, but they need to get better from 3-point range. UNC is currently 247th nationally with a 3-point shooting percentage of 31.6%. The Heels are getting to the free-throw line and scoring in transition, but they have to be more consistent from the perimeter to maximize their potential.
The Tar Heels' tough schedule and uptempo pace play a role in their defensive struggles, but the numbers don't lie. Through 12 games, UNC is 326th nationally in scoring defense (79.2 points per game) and 160th in field-goal percentage defense (42.8%). If UNC holds at 45th in defensive efficiency on KenPom.com, it would be the program's worst finishes since 2023 and 2020. The Heels missed the 2023 NCAA Tournament and had a 14-19 record in 2020 before the season was canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
KEYS FOR UNC: Hubert Davis was happier than usual leaving UNC basketball's recent practices. Here's why
Rebounding, another pillar of UNC's program in the past, has been another area of concern. An inability to grab timely boards against Florida, cost the Tar Heels a chance at a top-10 win in Charlotte. UNC is 228th in offensive rebounding percentage and 111th in defensive rebounding percentage. Those numbers would put the current Tar Heels in a group with the final two teams under Matt Doherty, who combined for 27 wins and 36 losses.
Because of a nonconference schedule that included five games against top-25 opponents, including four against top-10 teams, UNC is positioned to remain the top challenger to Duke for ACC supremacy. There's quite a gap between those teams at the moment, but the Heels will have two opportunities against the Blue Devils (Feb. 1 and March 8).
UNC can't afford any letdowns as it hits the road for three of its first four ACC games in 2025, with trips to Louisville, Notre Dame and rival N.C. State on tap. The Heels' season-defining stretch could come during an two-week stretch in which they play road games at Pitt, Clemson and Duke with a home game against the Panthers squeezed between trips to Durham and South Carolina.
As it stands before Christmas, UNC is currently projected to be the final No. 9 seed in the 2025 NCAA Tournament. According to Bracket Matrix, the Tar Heels have the fourth-best resume in the ACC behind Duke, Clemson and Pitt. UNC is 34th in the NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool) rankings, with a 2-5 record against Quadrant 1 opponents. There are seven Quad 1 opportunities across the final 19 conference games, so the Heels need to take advantage of them to secure their spot in March Madness. If not, they'll be missing out on the fun for the second time in the last three seasons.
Rodd Baxley covers Duke, North Carolina and N.C. State for The Fayetteville Observer as part of the USA TODAY Network. Follow his ACC coverage on X/Twitter or Bluesky: @RoddBaxley. Got questions regarding those teams? Send them to [email protected].
This article originally appeared on The Fayetteville Observer: Where RJ Davis, UNC basketball stand in the ACC, NCAA entering 2025