What are the Mariners' chances of signing Japanese ace Roki Sasaki?

By Adam Jude

What are the Mariners' chances of signing Japanese ace Roki Sasaki?

For years, Seattle was regarded as a premier destination for Japanese players making the jump to Major League Baseball.

The Mariners had strong ties across the Pacific: They had a longtime owner, Hiroshi Yamauchi, based in Japan and they of course had Ichiro, baseball's iconic Japanese star, helping to open a portal for top players making the transition from Nippon Professional Baseball.

Seattle's popularity as a preferred landing spot for Japanese players has waned, though.

In December 2017, the Mariners were optimistic about their chances to sign then-23-year-old Shohei Ohtani and were disappointed when he chose instead to sign with the rival Los Angeles Angels.

A year later, the Mariners did sign a top free-agent pitcher from Japan, left-hander Yusei Kikuchi, who went on to have an uneven three-year stint in Seattle. He was an All-Star in his final season with the Mariners in 2021, but the club declined his option after that season.

The Mariners haven't rostered a Japanese player since.

All of which sets the stage for the conversation surrounding 23-year-old right-handed pitcher Roki Sasaki, one of the most fascinating players to ever come out of Japan.

Sasaki's NPB club, the Chiba Lotte Marines, has announced its intention to post Sasaki at some point this offseason, instantly making him one of the most talented and most coveted players available to any MLB team.

Here's what we know about Sasaki and his pending posting:

Who is he?

Sasaki has been described as the LeBron James of Japanese baseball.

While in high school, he touched 101 mph and once threw a 194-pitch, 12-inning complete game in which he also hit the winning homer.

The lanky 6-foot-2 right-hander was the No. 1 pick in the 2019 NPB draft and threw a perfect game at the age of 20 in April 2022, during which he struck out 19 batters (13 in a row during one stretch) to tie a league record. In his next start, he threw eight more perfect innings before being pulled before the ninth inning.

In 64 appearances over four seasons in the NPB, Sasaki has a 2.02 ERA with 524 strikeouts and 91 walks in 414-2/3 innings. He has a fastball that sits in the upper 90s, a splitter he throws more than 30% of the time and a developing slider he learned from Yu Darvish.

Sasaki burst onto the international scene when he helped Japan win the 2023 World Baseball Classic. In 2024, he was limited to 111 innings because of oblique and shoulder injuries, posting a 2.35 ERA with 129 strikeouts and 32 walks this year.

"Since I joined [the Marines], I have continued to listen to my future MLB challenges, and I am grateful to the team for officially allowing me to post," Sasaki said in a statement. "There were a lot of things that happened, but I was able to get to this point by focusing solely on baseball, with the support of my teammates, staff, front office, and fans, so I don't have any regrets in my baseball career."

What do we know about his posting?

Per MLB's Collective Bargaining Agreement, international free agents under age 25 are considered amateurs. That means they are only eligible to sign minor-league contracts and are subject to the international bonus pool, which limits the amount teams can spend on foreign players.

For whichever team he signs with, Sasaki will be under that team's control for six years and will be subject to the league's arbitration system.

Sasaki is the same age as Ohtani when the two-way star signed with the Angels in 2017 for $2.3 million. (Ohtani was eventually rewarded with a record $700 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers last winter.)

The circumstances were different for another Japanese ace, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who was 25 last winter when he signed with the Dodgers on a 12-year, $325-million deal, the largest contract ever for an MLB pitcher.

Sasaki's desire to move to the United States now would indicate money is not a motivating factor.

The Athletic has reported that Sasaki's priorities will include stability, lifestyle, comfort and a team's history of player development.

Do the Mariners have a shot at signing him?

Sasaki might be as talented as any pitcher to ever come out of Japan, and because he'll make the league-minimum salary, he has a chance to be the best bargain in MLB for the next several years.

At that price, every MLB team should be interested in a 23-year-old with ace-like upside, and indeed the Mariners are preparing to make a recruiting pitch to Sasaki's camp when he's posted, per industry sources.

The Mariners could make a compelling case around their history of success with Japanese pitchers - Kazuhiro Sasaki (2000-03), Shigetoshi Hasegawa (2002-05), Hisashi Iwakuma (2012-2017) and Kikuchi (2019-21) all made at least one MLB All-Star appearance with Seattle - and their recent success of developing young pitchers, notably Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo.

The Dodgers are considered the favorites to sign Sasaki, who is represented by Wasserman, the same agency who reps Yamamoto.

The San Diego Padres are also thought to be a serious suitor because of Darvish, their veteran right-hander who has reportedly been a mentor to Sasaki.

Once the Chiba Lotte Marines make a formal posting, Sasaki will have 45 days to negotiate a deal with MLB teams. His NPB team will receive a 20% "release fee" for Sasaki's service.

When he will be formally posted is not known.

Most MLB teams have already exhausted their international bonus pool money for 2024. The Dodgers, per multiple reports, have the most bonus money remaining at $2.5 million.

If the Chiba Lotte Marines wait until Jan. 15 to post Sasaki, MLB teams will have the full allocation of their 2025 International bonus pool available - roughly $5 million to $7.5 million per team, according to MLB.com.

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