Hurricane Rafael had regained some strength and organization by Thursday afternoon as it churned through the Gulf of Mexico after crossing Cuba and weaking the day before, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
"The improved structure of the hurricane could make it more resilient to the negative effects of dry air and westerly shear in the near term, so some additional strengthening cannot be ruled out tonight," NHC hurricane specialist Brad Reinhart said in a 3 p.m. forecast.
Rafael was located 260 miles west-northwest of Havana, Cuba, at 3 p.m. Thursday. The Category 2 storm was producing sustained winds of 105 mph and moving west-northwest at 9 mph. It's only the 7th hurricane ever recorded in the Gulf of Mexico during the month of November.
The storm is forecast to move slowly over the south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week, where Reinhart said it's still expected weaken as it moves through strong shear and dry air over the next five or so days.
While Rafael is forecast to continue moving west through the Gulf until Saturday, Reinhart said it's still unclear where the system will go after that. Some hurricane models show Rafael turning southwest in response to a ridge over the western Gulf, but others show the storm slowly turning north between a trough over the central U.S. and a ridge to the east.
"No major changes were made to the NHC track forecast this cycle, which continues to favor the former scenario," Reinhart said. "However, future larger adjustments to the track forecast could be required."
Either way, local forecasters aren't expecting major impacts in Louisiana, though swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast for the next few days.
Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system, Reinhart said.
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