The highly-anticipated 2024 US Presidential election has seen the trading volume of bets on who is going to win it in leading prediction market Polymarket surpass the $3 billion mark, with bets on Republican candidate Donald Trump surpassing $1.29 billion.
According to data from Polymarket, bets on Vice President Kamala Harris now stand above the $800 million mark, with the market seeing the odds of Trump winning the election stand at 61.5%, compared to 38.5% for Harris.
Notably, over the weekend Trump's perceived winning odds plunged from 66.9% to 57% before they started recovering. According to economist Justin Wolfers, Trump's odds dropped sharply as influence from key whales is reportedly waning at a time in which polling also shows the race is tightening.
Data shows that top Trump position holders on Polymarket are currently seeing unrealized losses of around $4 million, with the top holder zxgngl currently holding a massive $17.4 million position that was facing a potential unrealized loss of $900,000, and is now sitting on $96,000 of unrealized gains.
The second-largest Trump position holder, Fredi9999, currently has a $13 million position, and is sitting on unrealized gains of $1.5 million. Other top whales, GCottrell93 and Theo4, hold $660,000 of unrealized losses and nearly $200,000 of unrealized gains, respectively.
Top holders of Kamala Harris position, leier, Ly67890, and L98189899 hold $4.1 million, $2 million, and $21.9 million positions respectively. The largest holder is sitting on unrealized losses of $840,000, while the second-largest holder is sitting on realized gains of around $80,000. The third-largest holder is sitting on a $27,000 unrealized loss.
It's worth noting that market depth on Polymarket has shown a significant lack of liquidity in the past, meaning that large positions could heavily influence the odds of any candidate. That liquidity, however, has seemingly deepened over the last few weeks.