The underdog revolution from earlier in the NFL season has fizzled out.
Favorites have returned to power over the last three slates of games with a particularly strong coup in Week 9. Fourteen of 15 favorites prevailed straight-up, with the Carolina Panthers beating the New Orleans Saints 23-22 while getting seven points on the spread being the only exception.
The Panthers pulled an increasingly rare feat in the game by winning as a home underdog. Road favorites are reigning this season, having now gone 36-13 straight-up, 31-17-1 against the spread so far.
More than 40% of Week 10's games feature road favorites, and I'm hoping this is the moment the records regress.
I'm picking the home underdog in four of the six Week 10 games fitting the criteria and labeling a pair of them plays.
Trends flip quickly in the NFL. Here's to the underdogs rising again.
Read below for handicaps on every Week 10 game. Picks are labeled in three separate confidence categories and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas on the chosen side at publication time. The overall record for the year stands at 70-62-6 after an 8-6-1 record last week.
Plays (26-22-2)
Philadelphia Eagles -7 at Dallas Cowboys This number jumped as few as 4.5 points after the Cowboys' Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb got injured last week. Lamb may still play, but even if he does, the drop-off from Prescott to backup Cooper Rush should be worth closer to a touchdown.
New York Jets +1.5 at Arizona Cardinals The Jets sit No. 12 in expected points added (EPA) per play; the Cardinals are No. 20. These two teams both still might be bet-against sides long-term, but the perception that the Cardinals have it more together is off. Three of Arizona's four recent wins have come by two points or less and could have easily swung the other way.
New Orleans Saints +3.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons Unbelievable circumstances transpired to lead to the Saints' loss to the Panthers last week in a game where they outgained the home team by 150 yards and nearly a full yard per play. All the underlying statistical evidence suggested New Orleans was the better team, so a 2-point leap over a key number on this point spread is unjustified.
Los Angeles Rams -2.5 vs. Miami Dolphins Both these teams' statistical profiles are artificially deflated because of the high-profile injuries they've dealt with throughout the season. Miami is much better off now that quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is back but still shorthanded on defense. The Dolphins rank No. 27 in the league against the pass by DVOA and should be hard-pressed to matchup with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua.
Indianapolis Colts +4.5 vs. Buffalo Bills Buffalo is dealing with cluster injuries at both wide receiver and in the defensive front seven. This number would be fair if both teams were at full strength, but the Colts are no walkovers and should threaten an upset given all of the Bills' absences.
Leans (26-23-3)
Houston Texans +3.5 vs. Detroit Lions If the Texans' Nico Collins -- who led the NFL in receiving yards before getting hurt in Week 5 -- returns for this game as some expect, the line will crash with the Lions closing as a short favorite. Houston rates pretty closely with Detroit at most spots; the skill positions are where it's currently at a big disadvantage but Collins could help close the gap.
Denver Broncos +8.5 at Kansas City Chiefs Kansas City was outgained by .9 yards per play in a 30-24 victory over Tampa Bay on Monday Night Football that again proved what's widely known about this team in current form: They're not set up to win games by margin. The Broncos split the series and outscored the Chiefs last year, and they have clearly leveled up this year.
Carolina Panthers +6 vs. New York Giants in Munich, Germany Forcing these teams to fly overseas and play on an unfamiliar surface adds a couple extra variables. In games with extra variables, it's always preferable to back underdogs -- perhaps especially here in a matchup between two of the worst teams in the NFL.
Baltimore Ravens -6 vs. Cincinnati Bengals The Ravens have the fifth best offense ever tracked by the DVOA ratings -- which date back to 1979 -- through eight weeks. They're so lethally efficient that they should be at least a touchdown favorite at home against any team other than the NFL's true elite sides, a group that doesn't include this year's Bengals.
Jacksonville Jaguars +4 vs. Minnesota Vikings Jacksonville has underachieved and looked ill-prepared all season, but their overall roster quality remains too high to be this large of a home underdog. The Jaguars have covered three straight and put scares into a pair of teams on a comparable level to the Vikings, the Eagles and Packers, the last two weeks.
Guesses (18-17-1)
San Francisco 49ers -5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers The 49ers have been better on both sides of the ball than the Buccaneers, and now have gotten healthier with the headline of the likely return of reigning Offensive Player of the Year Christian McCaffrey off a bye week. The Buccaneers keep losing players and are now on short rest after a Monday Night Football loss to the Chiefs.
Los Angeles Chargers -7.5 vs. Tennessee Titans Los Angeles' offensive uptick, which continued in a 27-10 win over Cleveland where it gained 6.1 yards per play, makes it a bet-on team until further notice. Betting over 37.5 points is the best main-market bet to make with the Titans also capable of adding to the scoreboard, either on their own with resilient running back Tony Pollard or through their NFL-worst 2.125 giveaways per game.
Chicago Bears -5.5 vs. New England Patriots This feels like a buy low on a Bears' team that was gaining darkhorse contender status after three straight wins and covers in the middle of last month. Things have gone awry since with two straight losses but both games came against offenses with much more explosive potential than the Patriots' offense.
Pittsburgh Steelers +3 at Washington Commanders This point spread is completely fair, but the Steelers are in a slightly better spot coming off a bye week with the Commanders yet to have their own break. Washington would have been a borderline play at the lowest opening price of -1.5, but the early action has shifted the market into place.