John Beers is a staff writer for Camden Chat, where he's been covering the Orioles since 2022.
Dean Kremer came into the 2024 season not knowing if he'd have a spot in the Orioles rotation. Kremer went through a roller-coaster ride this last season that often felt like it had more downs than ups. However, his flashes of upside were so promising that they could suggest a brighter future ahead in 2025.
Entering spring training back in February, the 28-year-old Kremer was among a handful of names competing for the Orioles fifth starter spot. With Corbin Burnes, Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez and John Means seemingly locked into starting spots, Kremer was looking to beat out the likes of Tyler Wells and Cole Irvin to remain in the rotation. After setting a career high in innings in 2023, the veteran right-hander was looking to marry durability with better results in 2024.
Kremer was perhaps one of the biggest beneficiaries of the rash of injuries that struck the Orioles rotation from the beginning of the most recent season. After both Means and Bradish found themselves on the injured list coming out of Sarasota, Kremer went from fringe rotation member to solidly entrenched. In his first start of the season, he delivered a solid but unspectacular line, going 5.1 innings against Kansas City while only giving up three runs in a 6-4 Orioles win.
Early in the year Kremer definitely showed more good than bad. During his second start of the season, he allowed only one earned run over seven innings in Pittsburgh while punching out six. Through the first month of the season his numbers on the surface weren't overly impressive: a 4.19 ERA, .691 opponent OPS, and 8.1 K/9. However, if you take out a particularly rough start against the Brewers where he allowed eight runs over four innings, that ERA drops to 2.97 with an opponent average of .160.
As the O's entered the second month of the season, an aura of inconsistency continued to hang over the head of the Stockton, CA, native. Kremer started off May by tossing six shutout innings in Cincinnati, allowing only one hit and punching out six. He'd follow that up with a true mixed bag of an outing; while he made it into the sixth inning against the Diamondbacks and punched out 10, he also allowed six runs (three earned).
In the middle of May, Kremer landed on the IL with a right tricep strain. At the time of his injury, Kremer was sporting a 4.32 ERA and a 4.89 FIP, but was limiting opponents to a .204 average while also racking up 49 Ks in 50 innings. Home runs were perhaps his biggest weakness early in the season, with 10 long balls over his first nine starts.
When Kremer came off the IL at the beginning of July, the Orioles rotation was in desperate need of reinforcement. Means, Bradish and Wells had all been lost for the rest of the season due to elbow injuries and the Orioles were relying on a patchwork rotation of Burnes, Rodriguez, Irvin, Albert Suárez and Cade Povich. Kremer's first outing off the injured list was promising, with the West Coast native tossing five shutout innings in Seattle while putting up 8 Ks.
However, just as we saw over his first nine starts, Kremer couldn't deliver that level of performance on a consistent basis. In his first five starts after the All-Star break, Kremer hit the biggest lull of his season, giving 18 runs (15 ER) over 25.1 innings as the O's struggled to a 1-4 record with Kremer on the mound. Home runs were no longer his biggest issue but rather a lack of command. The righty walked 4.6 batters per nine innings during his down turn in form.
After the first act of inconsistency and the second act of second half struggles, Kremer entered his third and final act: unexpected dominance. Over his final eight starts of the season, Kremer was in a fierce competition with Burnes and Zach Eflin as the O's best starter.
Over those eight outings, Kremer delivered five quality starts, a 2.98 ERA, a .219 BAA and 42 Ks in 45.1 innings. The only times Kremer failed to make it through six innings during this stretch was in Colorado, when he took a line drive off the forearm, and his final outing of the season, in which he allowed only one run in five innings at Yankee Stadium.
On the surface, Kremer's 2024 looks remarkably similar to his 2023. His ERA went down all of two points from 4.12 to 4.10. His FIP took a similarly unremarkable dip from 4.51 to 4.32 and his WHIP dropped seven points from 1.31 to 1.24. His K/9 and HR/9 both improved slightly, while his BB/9 trended in the wrong direction.
The advanced metrics tell a much more flattering story, however. Kremer set career bests in average exit velocity, opponent xBA and Hard Hit%. Ever the tinkerer, a lot of Kremer's success came from the addition of a new out pitch: his splitter. After throwing a changeup throughout his first four seasons in the big leagues, Kremer ditched the offspeed offering in favor of the split-finger fastball in 2024. It was by far the righty's best pitch, with opponents hitting only .139 on the splitter and swinging through it 36% of the time.
A similar story line will follow Kremer into 2025 as the one he carried into 2024. He clearly has the talent to be a big league starter, it's just a question of whether he can make the jump from a quality fourth or fifth starter to a consistent high-level contributor for a team with big postseason aspirations.
If Burnes doesn't come back, Kremer will head into next season as the projected third starter behind Eflin and a healthy G-Rod. With two years of arbitration left, Kremer could be pitching either for an extension after the 2025 season, or face the likelihood of heading to free agency after the 2026 season.