At the website footballscoop.com lead writer Zach Barnett and the team have conducted an ongoing study about the stats that lead to winning, and they've found two that are nearly a mortal cinch.
Barnett writes:
In Week 10 across FBS, teams that out-rushed their opponents and won the turnover battle were a combined 26-2. In Week 9, they went 34-4. In Week 8, 20-4. In Weeks 3 and 4, they were a combined 60-0.
In fact, in a 317-game sample size throughout the season, teams that win rushing and win turnovers are a combined 292-25. That .921 winning percentage is not a guarantee, but it's more likely than a Steph Curry free throw (91 percent, an NBA record), more likely than a PGA Tour player sinking a 4-foot putt (88 percent), and far more likely than Nick Saban's Alabama beating ULM (66.7 percent).
After examining box scores from thousands of games over the last five years, Barnett and the stat heads at Football Scoop have found six factors that correlate to winning, but these two are the most reliable. Possessing the football while being more physical than your opponent wins in the Big Ten, the SEC and almost anywhere else.
In fact in the FBS this season the six factors have performed this way in win percentage:
In the locker room after the win over Michigan Dan Lanning praised the Ducks for being more physical and taking the fight to the Wolverines. They outrushed their opponent but lost the turnover battle 1-0 when an early fumbled punt led to an easy Michigan score.
Oregon outrushed their hosts 176-105. It took some creativity on the part of offensive coordinator Will Stein to achieve that, as UM has one of the strongest defensive lines in the conference and the Ducks were a man down after losing starting right guard Marcus Harper II to injury.
The Ducks scored first, led at halftime 28-10, passed for more yards 294-165. They were more explosive, better prepared and more consistent.
The only blight on the domination was another lackluster third quarter, but that seems to be a product of slowing the tempo and getting more conservative with a commanding lead.
As Dan Lanning told the team in the winning locker room, they are growing and improving every week.
You can find Barnett's work on the six factors here. Another study by the Football Study Hall is available here. Of course, if you're a casual fan and stats don't interest you, you can always just rely on the scoreboard, which is undefeated.